HIP-4 Live on Mainnet: Hyperliquid Launches Full-Scale On-chain Prediction Markets

On May 2, 2026, Hyperliquid officially announced the activation of HIP-4 (Hyperliquid Improvement Proposal 4) on Mainnet. This marks a significant protocol upgrade that expands the platform's scope from Perpetual trading to Prediction Markets or full-scale On-chain event-driven contracts. The first market available for trading is "BTC above 78,213 on May 3 at 1:00 PM?", which utilizes Yes/No outcome contracts settled in the ecosystem's native stablecoin, USDH. Recently, the % Chance for the Yes side sat around 65–67%, with 24-hour trading volume surpassing 44,000 USDH and Open Interest at approximately $33,800 within just a few hours of launch.

What is HIP-4 and Why is it Important?

HIP-4 is the protocol standard that adds a native event-contract primitive into the Hyperliquid L1, allowing developers and Validators to create prediction markets for various events on the same layer as Perpetuals without relying on external Oracles or Smart Contracts. Key differentiators making HIP-4 noteworthy include:

• Full On-chain Settlement: All states are recorded and settled through Hyperliquid's own Validators, reducing the centralized counterparty risk that traders encountered in older generation Prediction Markets.
• USDH as Settlement Unit: Strengthens the native stablecoin flywheel and reduces reliance on USDC bridges from external chains.
• Orderbook-based, not AMM: Prices move according to a real Order Book, resulting in narrower Spreads and making it suitable for professional Market Makers seeking high capital efficiency.

Insights into the First Market

The "BTC above 78,213" market serves as a flagship market to test liquidity and Settlement mechanisms under real conditions. The fact that the Yes price moved from ~0.54 to 0.66 within 24 hours (+22.18%) reflects that traders have begun to understand the Binary outcome pricing mechanism faster than expected. Although Open Interest remains at an initial level, the Spread at around 3.4% indicates that early Liquidity Providers entered the Bid–Ask sides immediately after launch, which is a good sign for expansion into other market types such as election results, various Altcoin price levels, or macro events.

Implications for DEX Competition and Risks

The launch of HIP-4 positions Hyperliquid in direct competition with rivals like Polymarket and Kalshi but with structural advantages: it is non-custodial and permissionless — requiring no KYC, having no geographical restrictions, and allowing users to hold their own Wallet keys at all times. However, risks to watch include: (1) Order Book depth in new markets remains thin, leading to high slippage for large positions; (2) the oracle/resolution mechanism, while residing on Validators, still needs to prove itself in dispute cases; and (3) the volatility of USDH as a relatively young stablecoin compared to USDC or USDT. Psychological support for the Yes price in the first market is around 0.60, with major resistance at 0.70–0.72 before entering the expiry zone.

SiamDEX Perspective

SiamDEX views HIP-4 as a turning point that makes Hyperliquid more than just a top-tier perp DEX; it is becoming a universal derivatives layer supporting Perpetuals, Spot, and Prediction Markets on a single architecture. For Thai traders who want to experiment with this new market without the hassle of opening foreign exchange accounts or KYC, SiamDEX is the gateway to crypto trading on Hyperliquid that is convenient, fast, and requires no KYC. Simply connect your Wallet to start placing positions on Prediction Markets or Perpetuals immediately. What to watch next is the number of new markets Validators will open in the coming 2–4 weeks and the inflow of Liquidity, which will be the metric of whether HIP-4 can truly become a category killer for Decentralized Prediction Markets. Interested parties should start with small position sizes, manage risks with discipline, and study the Payout structure of Binary contracts thoroughly before entering the real arena.